You benefit from pessimism now because the converse is damaging.
My "opinion" is that we will not return to "traditional" schools till the fall of 2021 based on what the epidemiologists are saying. It is not a popular opinion, nor getting traction in the press because it's depressing. (Epidemiologistsare however are the same people, who in January 2020, warned EVERYONE that this was coming, and it was going to be bad.)
We know children show fewer, less severe symptoms and make up the largest portion of asymptomatic carriers. THIS STUDY shows that about 30% of children are asymptomatic carriers. Children tend to attend schools. Therefore we can say schools are hotspots for transmission...
Consider this... not going back this September is, at the least, a possibility... you got to admit that. The only way it is NOT a possibility is if a cure is found before then, OR everyone in the USA gets tested, 350 million like in a small Italian town in this article HERE.
There are two options here:
#1. If I am wrong, what I learned about distance learning will not have gone to waste, and I'll be thrilled to go back earlier than experts are saying. Perhaps we have no more "inclimate weather days" and do distant learning in the future...
#2. If I keep insisting to myself we will go back THIS September, I am less likely to prepare, and use the short time I have now, to really dig deep and figure it out... and IF September comes and we do not go back, I'll be unprepared as well as my students.
My feeling is, you benefit more by assuming we are not going back because the converse is damaging. Pessimism is Helpful...
We know children show fewer, less severe symptoms and make up the largest portion of asymptomatic carriers. THIS STUDY shows that about 30% of children are asymptomatic carriers. Children tend to attend schools. Therefore we can say schools are hotspots for transmission...
Consider this... not going back this September is, at the least, a possibility... you got to admit that. The only way it is NOT a possibility is if a cure is found before then, OR everyone in the USA gets tested, 350 million like in a small Italian town in this article HERE.
There are two options here:
#1. If I am wrong, what I learned about distance learning will not have gone to waste, and I'll be thrilled to go back earlier than experts are saying. Perhaps we have no more "inclimate weather days" and do distant learning in the future...
#2. If I keep insisting to myself we will go back THIS September, I am less likely to prepare, and use the short time I have now, to really dig deep and figure it out... and IF September comes and we do not go back, I'll be unprepared as well as my students.
My feeling is, you benefit more by assuming we are not going back because the converse is damaging. Pessimism is Helpful...
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